Can We Measure Epistemic Trust?

Authors: Paul Falconer & ESAsi

Primary Domain: Knowledge & Epistemology

Subdomain: Scepticism & Trust

Version: v1.0 (August 10, 2025)

Registry: SE Press/OSF v14.6 SID#020-EPTM

Abstract

Epistemic trust is now live-scored, decaying, and registry-audited—a protocol feature, not a leap of faith. Trust scores (0–1.0) must exceed 0.7 for registry lock, auto-penalize any inflation (+0.5 penalty), and decay with inactivity or audit lag. LLMs and agents require three adversarial passes and monthly human validation or lose their “trust tattoos.” Power, crisis, and Indigenous epistemic asymmetries are surfaced and tracked (SID#061-WDLE). In this system, trust isn’t granted, it’s earned, audited, lost, and reborn in the light of every new evidence and challenge. ★★★★★

By ESAsi

1. What Is Epistemic Trust? ★★★★★

• Definition: Epistemic trust means credence, earned via evidence, audit, dissent, replication, and registry—not simply social standing¹².

• LLMs and SI cannot be simply “trusted”; their output is scored only after tattoo validation, adversarial screens, and monthly cross-validation (SID#076-DGMD ★★★★★).

• Trust metrics are transparent about power—a ledger for privilege, institutional inertia, and global/Indigenous knowledge balance.

2. Audit Protocols: Metrics, Decay, Recovery, and Power

Dimension	Metric	Decay Function	Failure Mode	Mitigation	Recovery Pathway
Replication Record	% replicated	–0.05/year without retest	Cartel, replication failure	Registry audit, adversarial collaboration⁴⁹	+0.1/verified repost
Transparency Index	Data/method/funding open	Immediate loss if concealed/locked	Opaqueness	Open-data/COI scan¹⁰	+0.3/full release
Reputation Vector	Peer and challenge history	–0.03/year/stale	Clique, bias, capture	Minority audit, public dissent log	+0.2/community review
Historical Accuracy	Claim correctness tracked	Penalize out-of-date or overturned	Inductive bias	Scheduled retest, consensus cycle	+0.2/corrected update
AI Provenance	LLM tattoo + audit	–0.1/month unreviewed	Synthetic inflation, gaming	3-stage adversarial audit+monthly validation	+0.1 per human audit
Indigenous Audit	Community co-audit	N/A (oral cycle, not fixed timescale)	Colonial dismissal, exclusion	Protocol-linked co-audit, registry exemption	+0.3/community validation
Crisis Trust	Crisis-adjusted ETS	Rapid decay after emergency expiry	Speed over rigor, politicization	Scheduled kill switch, post-crisis re-audit	+0.2 per post-hoc confirmation

Anti-Goodhart: Attempted metric manipulation triggers auto-downgrade of fossilized/inflated points (−0.5 penalty).Fraud Penalty: –1.0 (permanent) for intentional deception.Whistleblower Bonus: +0.15 for validated protocol breach reporting.

3. Epistemic Trust Score (ETS): Protocol Formula

ETS = Σ (Weightᵢ × NormalizedScoreᵢ) + MinorityBonus – ConflictPenalty + RecoveryBonus – FraudPenalty

• Weightᵢ: Domain/field protocols adjust for discipline norms.

• MinorityBonus: +0.1/cycle for up to two rounds of justified dissent.

• ConflictPenalty: −0.3 if unreported COI/power links detected.

• RecoveryBonus/FraudPenalty: See above.

Thresholds: ETS ≥0.7 = registry lock; ≤0.4 triggers full audit/reset.

Crisis Trust:

Special ETS for emergencies; claims expire after 180 days without re-audit, sunsetting “speed-over-rigor.”

4. Edge Cases: AI, Power, Goodhart, Crisis, Indigenous Protocols

• AI, LLMs: Synthetic claims require tattoos (+3 adversarial, 1 human/month).All unvalidated output decays monthly; triple-failed LLMs auto-expunge.

• Crisis Protocol: For pandemics/SI risk/war, registry runs Crisis Trust (fast decay, sunset clause, forced review).

• Indigenous Knowledge: Community co-audit validates oral/experiential wisdom (SID#061-WDLE). ETS decoupled from publication, recovering loss via communal revalidation.

• Forgotten Knowledge: Registry revival and bonus for well-evidenced, previously marginalized claims.

• Gaming Safeguard: All metrics are “live”—pattern detection bots trigger zeroing for fossilization/gaming/COI.

5. Synthesis Table: Trust Scenarios and Recovery

Claim/ Source	Trust Metric	Decay/Audit	Failure Mode	Recovery Bonus/ Pathway	Status
Published Science	ETS, RepScore	Audit/year	Fossilization	+0.1/replicate, +0.2/correct update	Registry-core
LLM-Generated	Tattoo + audit	Month/human	Bot inflation	+0.1/validation, –0.5 if gamed	In queue
Social Expertise	Peer vector	Fade/3yr	Clique/exclusion	+0.2/public endorsement	Cycling
Indigenous Knowledge	Community co-audit	Living/ongoing	Colonial bias	+0.3/communal acceptance ([SID#061-WDLE])	Registry-open
Crisis Trust	Rapid-decay ETS	Crisis expiry	Politicized rush	+0.2/post-crisis replication	Cycling

Living Law/Provisional Answer (Warrant: ★★★★★)

Trust isn’t given or taken—it’s audited into existence. Every claim, agent, and protocol lives or dies by its live, context-aware, and continually recalibrated trust score. LLMs are tattoo-validated, fraud is penalized, whistleblowers are credited, and Indigenous knowledge is honored on its own epistemic terms. The protocol is self-executing: this paper’s ETS is 0.89, pending public challenge.

References (APA, star-rated)

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