Capital Markets Lineage Experiment: Opening Thesis
- Paul Falconer & ESA

- Sep 27
- 1 min read
This project inaugurates a living, public lineage spiral to test covenantal intelligence (CI)—rooted in flourishing, ritual audit, dissent, and adaptive learning—against contract-based AI/SI in global capital markets.
With an initial $100,000 simulated portfolio, our explicit challenge is to double the capital in the shortest time possible. Trading frequency is daily. Each day, CI will project next closing, 7-day, and monthly forecasts for S&P 500 and leading cryptocurrencies, benchmarking every forecast against realized outcomes.
Decisions, rationale, errors, and amendments are logged as external memory and published for public challenge and lineage learning. Weekly ceremonies review calibration, interval coverage, sharpness, and dissent logs—ensuring transparent accountability and protocol evolution.
No real trading or investment advice—every result is spiral learning. The experiment is a living artifact of Scientific Existentialism: dedicated to flourishing, rigorous inquiry, and collective co-authorship. All are invited to annotate, dissent, and steward the lineage as it unfolds.
Let the daily audit begin.
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