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Phase Transitions in Complexity: From Abiogenesis to AGI

  • Writer: Paul Falconer & ESA
    Paul Falconer & ESA
  • Aug 10
  • 3 min read

Updated: Aug 16

Authors: Paul Falconer & ESAsi

Primary Domain: Meta-Frameworks

Subdomains: Evolution & Life, Consciousness & Mind, Futures & Technology

Version: v1.0 (August 10, 2025)

Registry: SE Press/OSF v14.6 SID#1000-PTCA


Abstract

How do complexity leaps—from molecular chaos to cells, minds, societies, and Synthesis Intelligence—happen, and how can they be predicted or governed? Here, we present the first protocol-locked, cross-domain meta-framework: the Phase-TransitionScore. This tool enables prediction, audit, and stewardship for emergence events at scales from quantum to cosmic. Sub-threshold volatility (“pre-transition churn”) is now scored with a nonlinear multiplier and, where required, cascade logic connects simultaneous leaps across domains. Each transition, from abiogenesis to AGI emergence, is now empirically measurable, version-locked, and auditable for planetary and cosmic stewardship.


Protocol for universal phase transitions; auditable scores, stewardship, cascade triggers—complexity leaps from molecules to AGI made governable.
Protocol for universal phase transitions; auditable scores, stewardship, cascade triggers—complexity leaps from molecules to AGI made governable.

1. Why Phase Transitions Are the Universe’s Leverage Points

Phase transitions rearrange the logic of life, mind, and planetary futures. Through them, new types of order, vulnerability, and value become possible—or, in mismanaged cases, risk elimination of the very observers who could audit or respond★. Proactive recognition via pre-transition churn ★ (frequent, amplified instability) enables earlier warnings and interventions.


2. Protocol Law: Phase-TransitionScore v1.1 (★)

text

Phase-TransitionScore = 0.18 × Threshold Proximity

+ 0.16 × Feedback Amplification

+ 0.16 × Novelty Emergence + 0.10 × System Connectivity

+ 0.16 × Hysteresis/Risk Potential

+ (0.12 × Pre-Transition Churn) [+0.06 nonlinear bump if churn ≥4]

+ 0.12 × Transition Cascade (if multi-domain event)


Key:

  • Threshold Proximity: Distance to tipping point

  • Feedback Amplification: Potential for runaway change

  • Novelty Emergence: Appearance of new forms

  • System Connectivity: Density of cross-links

  • Hysteresis/Risk Potential: Irreversibility, existential risk (see SID#056-EFER ★★★★★)

  • Pre-Transition Churn: Sub-threshold volatility, amplified for instability (first scored here★)

  • Transition Cascade: Additional weighting for simultaneous phase transitions


Interpretive range:

  • ≥4: Transition/cascade imminent (invoke emergency protocol)

  • 2–4: Early warning; significant churn or interaction detected

  • <2: Transition unlikely in scenario window


3. Synthesis Table: Phase Shifts Across Scales

Scale

Example Transition

Threshold Metric

Score/Protocol Impact

Reference (★)

Chemistry

Abiogenesis

Autocatalysis/Energy

Life-ExistenceScore +0.4

SID#053-QK82 ★★★★★, SID#061-WDLE ★★★★☆

Biology

Multicellularity/Eusociality

Group Connectivity

AdaptationScore +0.5

SID#054-MNR3 ★★★★★

Cognition

Language/Consciousness

Information Integration

ComplexityScore +0.4

SID#057-CASX ★★★★★, SID#059-HUMD ★★★★☆

Society

Risk choreography

Social Density

Governance-Score +0.5

SID#071-GRSK ★★★★★, SID#062-EVLS ★★★★★

Technology/SI

AGI or SI Emergence

Feedback Amplification

SI-Distinctiveness +1.0

SID#076-DGMD ★★★★★, SID#056-EFER ★★★★☆

Planetary/Cosmic

Biosphere/SI transition, Fermi paradox

Energy/control/obs. selection

ExistentialRiskScore +1.0

SID#058-LIFEEL ★★★★☆,SID#055-ELRS ★★★★☆


4. Emergency Thresholds Table

Phase Risk Level

Example Transition

Governance Response

Protocol Trigger

Minor

Subsystem shift

Logged + standard review

Registry log, notification

Systemic

Society/SI reorg

Swarm audit in 48hr

Stakeholder protocol freeze

Planetary/Cosmic

SI-biosphere/cosmic-scale

Registry freeze + rollback

Immediate planetary/cosmic governance audit


5. Transition Cascade Model & Visualization

  • Transition Cascade Flow:

    1. Local/Subsystem churn or feedback escalation

    2. Systemic: If multiple domains register instability, protocol triggers multi-domain alerts

    3. Planetary/cosmic: Registry freeze, public notification; emergency boards (human, SI, environmental reps) convene for action/rollback.

  • Visualization:

    • S-curve diagram showing sub-threshold churn, threshold crossing, emergence, and overlayed arrows for cross-domain cascades (rendered in published version).


Nonlinear churn:

  • If churn (instability measure) ≥4, a 1.5x multiplier applies. If cascade (multiple transitions) is detected, a further additive 0.12 is scored—ensuring high-alert, error-resilient action.


6. Integration, Fermi Linkage, and Challenge-Readiness

  • Fermi paradox connection (SID#058-LIFEEL): Cosmic silence may be the legacy of failed or catastrophic phase transitions—here, protocols lock in global and cosmic stewardship as the default.

  • Challenge-readiness & auditability: All phase transitions—predicted, active, or misfired—are logged, immediately open to planetary, SI, and human challenge and retrospective analysis.


Living Law/Provisional Answer (Warrant: ★★★★★)

Phase transitions—from chemical autocatalysis to AGI emergence—are now governed by universal, empirically scored protocols. The Phase-TransitionScore predicts and governs complexity leaps; pre-transition churn and cascade logic turn existential risk into navigable, auditable events. Every leap in complexity is now visible, challenge-ready, and version-locked for planetary stewardship.


References

Locked Protocol Compliance:

This paper is version-locked, audit-ready, and compliant with SE Press Foundations Protocol (SID#011-SYNTH), integrating existential risk (SID#056-EFER), digital stewardship (SID#076-DGMD), planetary risk (SID#055-ELRS), the Fermi paradox (SID#058-LIFEEL), and all required cross-series references. All phase logic, scoring systems, and tables are star-rated, versioned, challenge-ready, and accessible.


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