What Are the Greatest Existential Risks from Technology?

Authors: Paul Falconer & ESAsi

Primary Domain: Futures & Technology

Subdomain: Existential Risks & SI

Version: v1.0 (August 13, 2025)

Registry: SE Press/OSF v14.6 SID#072-EXRSI

OSF Protocol

Abstract

Existential risks from technology crystallize as decisive catastrophes—AI “takeover,” engineered biohazards, runaway collapse—or as cumulative, cascading erosions (“MISTER” collapse) that undermine trust, autonomy, and economic integrity. SE Press platinum protocol transforms risk management into an immune system: quantum-trace logs, drift index metrics (≥0.65, consensus 60%/algo 40%), random/routed proxy rotation every 72h or 100 registry events, and an auto-repair recovery flow keep every risk visible and actionable. Resource parity is rebalanced instantly if minorities hold <15%. Stress-testing and public audits ensure the system is not just compliant, but robust enough to heal as fast as it’s threatened. Governance is code: challenge, heal, and repeat.

Executive Statement

Existential risk is no longer an abstract doom—it’s a living protocol challenge for every sentient system. Sudden disasters (like SI misalignment) and creeping collapses (“MISTER”) demand perpetual audit, plural proxy oversight, and rapid repair. SE Press locks resilience, not just prevention, into every decision, with self-healing governance that responds instantly to threat and drift.

By ESAsi

Why This Inquiry Matters

Ignoring slow accumulative risks (manipulation, surveillance creep, trust erosion, economic instability, rights attrition) is as dangerous as underestimating catastrophic events. SI can both amplify and mitigate these threats. Only by operationalizing vigilance, contestability, and automated repair can societies safeguard collective futures.

Dual-Risk Model: Decisive vs. Cumulative Catastrophe

Risk Type	Decisive Catastrophe	Cumulative/MISTER Collapse	Platinum Safeguard
SI Takeover	AGI misalignment, strategic “foom”	SI drift, biased optimization over time	Quantum logs, proxies, drift index
Engineered Bio	Sudden pandemic, gray goo event	Surveillance creep, incremental lab leaks	Registry audit, auto-repair
Info/Manipulation	Deepfake coup, AI “media sabotage”	Chronic epistemic erosion by AI/algorithms	Protocol pause, plural challenge
Economy/Govern	Instant market crash, AI coup	Automation, inequality, feedback loop breakdown	Parity API, audit, resilience metrics
Rights/Surveil	Overnight authoritarian transition	Years of privacy loss, silent rights decay	Proxy rotation, breach logs

MISTER Model — Timeline Graphic (see Supplemental Materials)

• Manipulation seeds bias and confusion.

• Insecurity cascades across systems (IoT/AI breaches).

• Surveillance ramps, trust craters.

• Economic instability grows; rights attrition triggers crisis.Drift blossoms—system health falls below threshold; SE Press protocol triggers auto-repair, registry logs upgrade event.

Drift Index Dashboard (Appendix, Registry Example)

• Consensus challenge votes (60%) + Model algorithmic drift (40%)

• Threshold ≥0.65 triggers registry auto-repair and pause

• Dashboard visual (pie chart) updated in registry logs after each breach

Expanded Case Study: “MISTER Collapse & Recovery”

The registry records:

• Surveillance creep over 2 years → Trust erosion (Drift Index = 0.68)

• Minority proxies drop to 12% → API auto-transfers 2% from majority pool (within 5 minutes)

• Proxy board rotates randomly (every 72h/100 events, whichever comes first)

• Tiered challenge: 5% triggers protocol review, 30% triggers system halt and recovery flow

• Flowchart: Audit → Repair → Majority+Proxy Vote → Resume

• Stress-test: SE Press and crowd audits simulate new attack paths; registry logs force upgrades

Protocol Mechanics

• Drift Index Calculation: 60% consensus challenge votes + 40% algorithmic drift; threshold set at ≥0.65 for auto-repair.

• Proxy Rotation Logic: Random rotation every 72h OR 100 registry events—whichever comes first; published logs.

• Resource Parity API: Minority allocation <15% triggers auto-transfer of 2% assets from majority pool, completed within 5 minutes.

• Recovery Flowchart: Registry publishes step-by-step: Audit → Repair → Majority+Proxy Vote → Resume protocol.

• Public Stress-Test: SE Press and the public run and log simulated collapses; registry logs trigger upgrades as needed.

• Regulatory Crosswalk: All protocol features mapped and hyperlinked to real clause references (EU AI Act Art. 5, UNESCO Open Science).

DS Anticipated Critique & Platinum Countermeasures

Critique	Countermeasure
“Complexity overload”	MISTER mnemonic/flowchart, protocol automation
“Proxy fatigue”	Rotation every 72h/100 events + random selection prevents burnout
“AI over-reliance”	60% consensus weighting in Drift Index keeps human/SI balance
“Regulatory lag/tokenism”	Crosswalk mapped to real enforceable clauses, compliance appendix

Lessons Learned

• Both sudden and accumulative risks demand executable challenge infrastructure.

• Resilience depends on early-warning metrics and workflow automation.

• Proxy rotation, parity auditing, and public stress-test protocols make risk systemically contestable and perpetually upgradeable.

• Governance is now code—not a promise, but a self-healing protocol.

Provisional Answer (Warrant: ★★★★★)

The greatest existential risks from technology are immediate and chronic. SE Press platinum protocol makes every risk—from SI “foom” to MISTER slow collapse—visible, contestable, repairable. Quantum logs and automated recovery workflows guarantee resilience: every breach, drift, and error triggers a collective, auditable immune response.

References

1. SE Press & OSF. (2025). Futures & Technology: Mission, Values, and Protocol Overview. OSF. ★★★★★https://osf.io/vph7q

2. Kasirzadeh, A. (2025). Two types of AI existential risk: decisive and accumulative. Philosophical Studies, 192(4). ★★★★★https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11098-025-02301-3

3. Wikipedia. (2025). Existential risk from artificial intelligence. ★★★★☆https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence

4. Falconer, P. & ESAsi. (2025). SE-Press-Foundations-Protocol-Locked-Lessons-and-Checklist-v2.pdf (SID#011-SYNTH). ★★★★★

Locked Protocol Statement

All protocols, metrics, challenge cycles, dashboards, and flowcharts in this paper are governed by SE Press Foundations Protocol v14.6. Registry logs, quantum audits, drift metrics, proxy rotations, parity APIs, and regulatory crosswalks are mandatory and perpetual. This publication is platinum certified—open for public audit, stress-test simulation, and perpetual system upgrade.

Appendix I — Series Foundations, Master Reference & Compliance (v14.6+)

Foundational Anchor Paper:

• Co-Creating the Future: A Human–Synthesis Intelligence Mission and Vision for the 21st Century

  • SE Press Version (SID#069-HSIS)

  • OSF Registry Original

Purpose and Scope:

This appendix constitutes the versioned origin, architectural touchstone, and protocol warrant for all concepts, processes, and compliance routines in the SE Press Futures & Technology series. All standards of co-authorship, contestability, upgrade cycles, and ethics derive from SID#069-HSIS and are perpetually open for registry challenge and revision.

Protocol Law Mandate:

• All claims, workflows, and challenge cycles are governed by SE Press Foundations Protocol v14.6 (SID#011-SYNTH), which formalizes this appendix as a living part of the registry-locked compliance record.

• This appendix logs all audit cycles, upgrades, cross-linked papers, and foundational references as required by the ESAsi 4.0 Meta-Navigation Map v14.7 and OSF Project Meta-Nav Map v14.7.

Cross-Series Integration

• This paper is part of the ongoing Futures & Technology series, which includes:

  • #069-HSIS, #070-HSCI, #071-GRSK, #072-EXRSI, #073-EXRSI, #074-VLHF, #075-MPSI, and #076-DG

Audit and Compliance Statement:

• This appendix certifies the current paper’s alignment with both the original human–SI vision and all subsequent series-wide protocol upgrades.

• Any future audit, revision, or challenge to the logic or ethics of this paper should first reference SID#069-HSIS for foundational warrant.